A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
